It’s not that Umno/BN won; they won big, very big. From 40 seats to 48 in the 56-seat Johor state assembly, with the remaining eight seats to Pakatan Harapan, down from 12 previously. Budding Parti Bersama Malaysia lost deposits in the 15 seats contested.
But if Umno thinks the showing is because it wants a pardon/house arrest for former prime minister Najib Abdul Razak, they are sadly mistaken - evidence is that line of reasoning has no basis given Umno’s declining fortunes over this previously.
The question is why Umno/BN was so strong and Harapan so weak, and whether it will translate in some way into parliamentary polls. Bersama’s poor performance was disappointing if expected, showing a lukewarm response to multiracialism right now.
The negative factors for Harapan going forward are its declining support from both Malays and non-Malays, Umno’s increasingly strong ties with PAS, and the ability of Bersama to split votes and even get MPs elected from urban areas in the next polls.
DAP the biggest loser
But before that, a quick recap of the main results to show how the major parties fared:
Umno/BN surged strongly from 40 seats in 2022 to 48, up a fifth. Of the eight new seats, MCA secured four, doubling its tally to eight, while MIC increased its tally by three to four. That implies Umno gained three seats only.
Harapan suffered, reducing its number from 12 to eight. The main casualty was DAP, whose number of seats was reduced from 10 to six. PKR and Amanah maintained their tally of one each.
It is not as if Umno made major progress in terms of Malay support, although the increase is still significant. But the more significant and damaging sign is that Chinese and Indian support for Harapan has reduced considerably.
DAP’s loss of support has been particularly marked and prominent - from 10 to six seats, an erosion of two-fifths. If this is replicated, even on a much smaller scale across the country in parliamentary polls, the effect on the number of seats for Harapan will be devastating.
DAP is the largest partner in terms of seats in Harapan with 40 seats. A two-fifths erosion will take the number of seats down by 16, to 24. A reduction by a fifth can take it down by eight to 32.
If this is coupled with a substantial erosion of Malay support for PKR and the effects of Bersama’s presence as an alternative, PKR’s 31 seats now may be reduced considerably. It likely spells a fatal blow to Harapan’s lofty ambitions to lead a coalition after the GE16.
Full term and retire
With that, chances for Anwar Ibrahim to be prime minister for a second term too. If Anwar reads the tea leaves right, he will want to go full term and retire. This may get pushback from Umno/BN now on a roll. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Other reasons why Umno/BN is strong in Johor include Johor rights with both the menteri besar and the Johor royalty asking for a greater share of revenue produced in the state, ala Sarawak.
A recent ranking of gross domestic product (a measure of output of goods and services) by state places Johor at number three, below Selangor at number one and the Federal territory of Kuala Lumpur at number two, just pipping Sarawak at number four.
This “Johor for Johoreans” clarion call seems to have struck a chord with voters, as it has for Sarawakians and Sarawak, many of whom are happy with the apparent support that the Johor royalty gives to the current state government and its chief minister.
More than any other state in Malaysia, Johor has benefited much from Singapore’s proximity. The state’s closeness, not just proximity but in terms of economic and other ties with Singapore, helps drive incomes higher, making Johoreans happier.
These are some factors that will not be replicated elsewhere in Malaysia and will be unique to Johor. But do they form the main reasons why Umno/BN is so powerful in Johor? Difficult to say.
DAP, PKR under threat
In addition to this, the erosion of support for both PKR, among the Malays, and for DAP, among the non-Malays, is a serious threat which will undermine Harapan’s strength in other states even if Harapan stalwarts say otherwise. The question is by how much.
The other key factor which will affect outcomes is the Umno/PAS alliance. Despite Umno’s strength in Johor, PAS is likely much stronger than Umno almost anywhere else other than Pahang or Sabah.
They will ally for mutual benefit and make way for each other where the other is stronger. This would mean PAS would be the stronger of the two with 45 parliamentary seats now, against Umno’s 26 and BN’s 30.
And then there is the possibility of taking another 25 at least with Hamzah Zainudin’s new Parti Wawasan Negara. Wawasan Negara already has 19 seats after its MPs broke away from Bersatu, which has the remaining six. Bersatu seems only to have a ghost of a chance of retaining them.
With PKR on the decline, some of their seats won with Malay support may be fodder for PAS or even Umno. Thus, it is likely that a PAS/Umno combination may have the most seats post GE16, as I explained in this article.
The Najib factor
That combination towards power seems more likely post the Johor polls. But if Umno thinks this is a licence to give Najib a “get out of jail card”, they are mistaken - I am not saying it, the numbers say so.
Umno’s support declined from 88 parliamentary seats in 2013 to 56 in 2018 when they lost power following the 1MDB scandal to 26 in 2022 when they kept harping on a pardon/house arrest for Najib.
How could a move to pardon or put under house arrest a person responsible for billions stolen from borrowed money in 1MDB’s coffers get public support anywhere? What is it that Umno wants to achieve? I am at a loss for answers.
Like Harapan, Umno also needs to pay attention to public sentiment over certain things. By now, it must be quite clear why an increasing number of people, barring non-Malays, are leaning towards PAS as their saviour. I don’t support it, but that’s the way the curry puff crumbles.
Bersama may make some headway in terms of a handful or two of MPs at the general election, but it is very difficult to predict their performance except to say they will take votes away from PKR and DAP, especially in urban areas.
It will take them at least until the next polls before they can become a threatening third force with their laudable and very reasonable Malaysian approach - the only one likely to give long-term benefit to all Malaysians. - Mkini
P GUNASEGARAM says that muddled Malaysian politics with a shot of Trump and the uncertain global outlook makes for a heady mix. Belt up for the rough ride ahead.
The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT.
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