Johor polls more than a test for Onn Hafiz and his leadership

 Two analysts say BN’s decision to make Onn Hafiz Ghazi the face of its campaign has turned the state election into a gauge of voter confidence in his administration, but other factors will also have an impact on grassroots sentiment.

Onn Hafiz Ghazi (centre) is leading BN’s campaign as the coalition seeks a fresh mandate in Johor.

PETALING JAYA:

Onn Hafiz Ghazi’s leadership and Umno’s political clout in Johor will be put to the test as voters cast their ballots today, analysts say.

However, as one of them, James Chin of University of Tasmania, pointed out, it is also a referendum on the decision by Umno in particular and Barisan Nasional in general, to go solo despite it being part of the unity government at the federal level.

In any case, Chin and Akademi Nusantara’s Azmi Hassan pointed out, the election should not solely be about the caretaker menteri besar.

Azmi noted that Onn Hafiz has become the main target of criticisms especially from Pakatan Harapan but “it is only natural” given that he is leading BN’s campaign at the state level.

Syaza Shukri.

For International Islamic University Malaysia’s Syaza Shukri and Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia – the two analysts who see the polls mostly as a test for Onn Hafiz – it is inevitable given that BN has made him the face of its campaign.

“He’s front and centre of their campaign. BN has largely focused on promoting the development that occurred under his leadership, so it’s about whether or not voters want continuity under him,” Syaza told FMT.

Mazlan Ali.

For Mazlan, the question is whether or not BN under Onn Hafiz is able to retain the 40 seats it won in 2022. “This is his first election as incumbent menteri besar.

“(On that count,) BN’s performance can be considered a referendum on Onn Hafiz,” he said.

The Chinese sentiment 

But at the grassroots level, there are other factors at play. For instance, will the Johor election see a resurgence of MCA?

There is already a level of unhappiness with DAP on the ground, and MCA will certainly bank on it to win votes.

However, Chin said, there is a greater likelihood of unhappy DAP supporters staying home rather than come out to vote for MCA.

Azmi Hassan.

On the other hand, Azmi believes MCA stands to benefit, pointing to Pekan Nenas in Johor, which BN wrested from DAP in the last state election.

He also noted that DAP lost all eight seats it contested in the Sabah election in November last year, including the six it held before the polls.

Mazlan pointed out that the Sabah results should not be used as a gauge for Johor, as the Sabah election was shaped by strong state-based sentiment and a broad rejection of peninsula-based parties.

PN split clouds opposition chances 

Mazlan and Chin said the split between PAS and Bersatu could work in BN’s favour, especially if PAS supporters back BN candidates following PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang’s call to support BN in seats not contested by Perikatan Nasional.

BN is not expected to return the favour as it is contesting all 56 seats.

James Chin.

“Malay voters believe that there is some sort of cooperation between Umno and PAS, that they are supporting each other. PAS supporters who vote for Umno or BN are the ones who can push BN beyond 40 seats, rather than the other way around,” Chin said.

Mazlan said PAS, which is contesting only 11 of the 56 seats, is building leverage for future negotiations. “It will most likely be a straight fight between BN and PH,” he said, given that both coalitions are contesting all 56 seats up for grabs.

MIC’s grassroots test 

Internally, MIC leaders have expressed confidence the party can retain support among lower-income and some middle-income Indian voters, with Perling and Kahang seen as its best prospects.

In the 2022 Johor election, DAP’s Liew Chin Tong beat Tan Hiang Kee of MCA and Koo Shiaw Lee of Geraken to retain the Perling seat for PH.

This time around, MIC’s P Pannir Selvam will represent BN in the Perling contest. Liew will not be contesting.

In Kahang, MIC’s R Vidyananthan beat challenges from DAP, Bersatu, and Pejuang to retain the seat for BN with a 6,698-vote majority in the 2022 election.

BN has fielded V Rugendran of MIC, who is taking the fight to Imam Sabri of PH-Amanah and Mazlan Bujang of PN-PAS.

Interviews with Indian voters suggest that those who have previously benefited from MIC’s assistance remain inclined to support the party. However, higher-income and upper-middle-income Indian voters appear more inclined towards PH.

The polls will also show whether Rafizi Ramli’s Parti Bersama Malaysia will siphon off votes in urban seats, and whether Muda can win without the backing of a major coalition.

The Najib factor

Chin and Azmi also said the row over a possible pardon for former prime minister Najib Razak is unlikely to be a deciding factor among Malay voters.

“The issue is being used by PH, especially DAP, to portray Najib as the bogeyman to bring back the Chinese votes,” Chin said.

Whatever happens, the outcome of today’s polls will reveal whether Umno can maintain its dominance in Johor, long regarded as the party’s traditional stronghold, and whether its allies within BN can continue to benefit from it. - FMT