Too close to call: The eight volatile seats holding the key to Johor's next government

 

EC personnel make final preparations by setting up voting equipment ahead of polling day for the 16th Johor election at Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Sultan Abdul Jalil. – NSTP/Aizuddin Saad

JOHOR BARU: Eight closely contested seats could determine the shape of the next Johor government, with voter turnout, the movement of Perikatan Nasional (PN) supporters and undecided young voters expected to play a decisive role, according to Ilham Centre.

Its executive director, Hisommudin Bakar, said the eight competitive seats — Tenang, Tangkak, Maharani, Layang-Layang, Puteri Wangsa, Johor Jaya, Kota Iskandar and Bukit Batu — remained highly volatile ahead of tomorrow's polling day.

He said the seats could swing based on three critical factors, beginning with voter turnout, particularly among Chinese voters in urban and semi-urban constituencies and Malay voters in mixed seats.

The second factor was the direction of support among PN voters following tensions between Pas and Bersatu, which could result in tactical voting in selected constituencies.

The third was the estimated 17 per cent of undecided voters, largely made up of young voters who tend to make their final decisions late in the campaign.

"Young voters are increasingly candidate-centric, assessing personalities, service records and social media presence rather than relying solely on party identity," Hisommudin said.

Ilham Centre said its field study found that the Johor election had largely centred on state leadership, governance and issues directly affecting Johoreans, rather than national political sentiment.

It said voters in a state election tended to place greater emphasis on the performance of the Johor government, the menteri besar's leadership and visible development achievements.

Onn Hafiz greets BN election workers and members of the local community during the Kenduri Sekampung programme held in conjunction with the 16th Johor election at Kampung Perak, Simpang Renggam. NSTP/Aizuddin Saad

Hisommudin said Johor caretaker menteri besar Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi had emerged as one of the defining figures of the campaign, with the centre's field study recording his popularity at 79 per cent among respondents.

He said BN built its campaign around Onn Hafiz's image by highlighting political stability, administrative performance, development projects and state assistance programmes.

"BN managed to align its campaign with the character of a state election by focusing on the menteri besar and the performance of the Johor government," he said.

Meanwhile, Ilham Centre said Pakatan Harapan (PH) had relied more heavily on Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's national appeal and the federal government's achievements, but had found it more difficult to establish a strong local narrative.

Hisommudin said voters were more concerned about bread-and-butter issues, including the cost of living, employment opportunities, affordable housing, daily travel to Singapore and traffic congestion.

He added that attempts to shift the campaign towards national issues and political attacks had not significantly influenced grassroots sentiment.

"Social media debates between political leaders generated attention online but did not create a dominant ground sentiment."

Based on its overall assessment, Ilham Centre projected Barisan Nasional (BN) to lead in 39 of the 56 seats, with PH expected to secure nine seats, while the remaining eight constituencies remained too close to call.

The research body said BN's campaign had benefited from strong grassroots machinery, recognisable candidates and a consistent emphasis on political stability and continuity.

It also noted that the state election format allowed parties to campaign more on state administration and local leadership than on national political issues.

However, Ilham Centre cautioned against interpreting the Johor election as a template for national politics.

"The political landscape of each state differs based on demographics, political culture and competition," it said.

Ilham Centre conducted its field study between June 26 and July 9 using quantitative and qualitative methods across all 56 state constituencies.

The study involved 1,250 respondents, nine focus group discussions involving 76 participants and in-depth interviews with 18 informants.

It also analysed voting patterns from the 2022 Johor election and the 15th General Election using stratified random sampling across ethnicity, gender, age, education, income, occupation and locality. The study reported a margin of error of 2.77 per cent.

Campaigning for the 16th Johor election will officially end at 11.59pm today, in accordance with the Election Commission's (EC) election timetable.

Tomorrow, campaign rhetoric will give way to the voters' verdict as more than 2.7 million eligible Johoreans head to the ballot box to decide who will form the next Johor government. - NST