A bruising battleground: Johor electoral voting analysis Part 2

 

 Voters go to the polls tomorrow in Johor in its highly competitive 16th state election.

Early predictive analyses of the results – with high seat victories for Umno/BN – have failed to account for the fluid impact of social media issues and the rollercoaster of a campaign, especially in the last week.

Final factors shaping voting

Five factors influencing the campaign in the last few days are listed below. For readers interested in looking at this in more detail in seats, see my Kerusi Panas podcast on Johor.

1. Attacks backfired locally: There has been quiet but firm discontent with the tenor of the attacks made during the campaign. Many Johoreans have been unhappy with the overall negativity of the campaign, especially that of Pakatan Harapan.

2. Ethnic voting: We are seeing two types of ethnic voting – ethnic bloc support for coalitions, which reflects the ethnic polarisation of elections from 2018-2022 and the emergence of race-based voting, support for a candidate if she/he is of the same race. This feature has been more openly discussed and is explicitly part of PAS’ racialised campaign messaging in Johor. It is also spilling into voting in some constituencies for other parties as well. Race-based voting is impacting the ground locally due to trust and familiarity issues in a context where there are greater uncertainties.

3. Turnout: Attention has focused on the turnout factor for Harapan, especially DAP, to hold onto its seats. The turnout number analysis – 55 percent, 65 percent, 70 percent etc – is too simplistic, as turnout of whom and where is more important. The turnout of three groups will be decisive – outstation voters (who are likely to be more Harapan-friendly but split among all the major coalitions), Chinese voters living in Johor and Malay youth.

   There has been heavy traffic on Johor roads today – with many collecting their family members to come home to vote and others joining their families. Keep in mind that as much as 25 percent of voters in some seats are outstation, with an average of 15 percent. Who and how many will shape the remaining close-to-call seats, developed below.

4. Splits: In some seats, the culling of support from the main political coalitions may have an impact on the final outcome. This is likely to be only the case in a handful of seats.

   The three-cornered fight will also impact close seats, such as Jementah, where Perikatan Nasional support is taking away support from Umno/BN, which has fielded an MCA candidate and is helping DAP to secure a potential victory.

5. Role of resources. Machinery and support provided to voters are decisive in pulling out the core voters. This has most impacted Bersatu, followed by the smaller parties. Bersatu’s campaign has been very weak compared to its previous ones.

Looking at Johor’s prospective results: Opposition tests

Umno/BN will form the next Johor government, based on ground analysis. The question is whether they will be below or above 40 seats.

The answer to this lies with the performance of others.

First, PAS and Bersatu have the risk of losing all their seats. There are a few seats left in play: Maharani, Bukit Pasir, Endau and a longer shot, Bukit Kepong and Layang-Layang. The internal divisions and the mixed messaging of political positioning have had an impact. They are arguably dependent on supporters returning home as much as Harapan.

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Second, DAP hopes to hold onto its 10 seats and possibly win others – Yong Peng and Pekan Nanas, where they are fielding Yeo Tung Siong, a popular teacher and former assemblyperson, in the latter seat.

Of DAP seats, only six of these are secure, with the remaining dependent on return loyalist turnout. The key seats to watch are Tangkak, Johor Jaya, Stulang and Perling. The local betting odds have not changed much as of this morning, but DAP is likely to pick up some of these seats and may lose others. It is only if return voters reach above 70 percent of Chinese voters that they will pick up these seats handily.

Third, PKR is facing seriously tough battles in all of their seats. Going into polls, there is not a single seat that is safely winnable. That said, PKR is in the running to potentially win three seats (with an additional fourth) – leading in Puteri Wangsa where it is fielding Maszlee Malik, holding on in its incumbent seat Bukit Batu and fighting hard in Bukit Naning in the north. Some also point to Senggarang, where return voting will have an impact along with resources. The latter is a harder seat to win.

Fourth, Amanah is hoping to hold onto its Simpang Jeram seat and win in the highly competitive seat of Tenang, where they fielded the dynamic Elia Nadira Sabudin. PAS is also hoping to win there as well, as both women are running against Umno/BN, which is dominant in the Felda areas. The key here will be the youth vote, especially Malay youth.

Finally, there is the fortune of the smaller parties – Parti Bersama Malaysia and Muda. While they may split the vote in close races, they continue to face uphill battles. Muda is strongest in Puteri Wangsa, and Bersama is strongest where the candidates are well-known, such as Mahkota and Bukit Naning. All are tough fights for the smaller parties.

A negative campaign

None of the opposition parties has run a campaign to be proud of; there has been a use of insecurity and fear tied to race, red herring issues such as the Najib Abdul Razak pardon and personal attacks. The use of federal resources by Harapan is reminiscent of the past.

After the shock of calling early polls and taking a strong stand on alliances with DAP, Umno/BN’s campaign has been especially impacted by interaction with PAS, which has brought voters home. Despite Onn Hafiz Ghazi’s statement that his government will not work with PAS in the last days of the campaign, the fears have been heightened in the multi-ethnic state.

Onn Hafiz Ghazi

While there have been exceptions with candidates having local manifestos and focusing on service, what has been striking about the Johor opposition campaign is how little it has focused on addressing the issues Johoreans are facing.

Ironically, despite being a state election, it has become a national one. Johor has been an arena for national politics, even in the federal-state relations that have emerged.

This does not mean that it has not been impactful on Johoreans. Emotions have run high and continue to do so as voters are returning. When the dust settles, the campaign will be remembered for its social media dominance and ability to change and charge emotions, arguably to a greater extent than in the 2022 general election.

A sense of numbers

So where does this leave the predictive numbers in the final Johor outcome? As of now, I have 12 seats too close to call due to the potential impact of turnout swings. Among the closest of these are Bukit Pasir and Tangkak.

BN has 35 seats it looks comfortable of winning. If the final swing is in their direction, then they can easily reach well into the 40s.

If Harapan and PN are saved by outstation voters coming home, then they will have survived this competitive election.

The overall results are unlikely to show the campaign mood swings and the intensity of the contest. It has been a bruising battle, one with high unpredictability and many undecided voters, even on the eve of the polls.

With Negeri Sembilan around the corner, the bruising will continue, as attention will quickly turn to the next polls, leaving Johoreans to grapple with the aftermath of this turbulent election. - Mkini

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BRIDGET WELSH is an honorary research associate of the University of Nottingham’s Asia Research Institute and a senior associate fellow at The Habibie Centre. Her writings can be found at bridgetwelsh.com.

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT.