PN no longer viable with Pas-Bersatu rift, say analysts

 

The widening rift between Pas and Bersatu could leave Perikatan Nasional (PN) functioning as a coalition only in name ahead of the Negri Sembilan election, say political analysts. NSTP FILE PIC

KUALA LUMPUR: The widening rift between Pas and Bersatu could leave Perikatan Nasional (PN) functioning as a coalition only in name ahead of the Negri Sembilan election, say political analysts.

Universiti Malaya senior lecturer Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said Bersatu's decision to contest under its own logo suggested PN might continue to exist formally but was no longer operating as a coordinated electoral alliance.

He said the move followed stalled PN seat negotiations, even as Pas held direct discussions with Umno without the apparent consent of other coalition partners.

"The use of Bersatu's own logo is not merely symbolic. It shows that Bersatu wants to protect its identity, candidates and areas of influence from being sidelined in a new Pas-Umno alignment," he told the New Straits Times.

Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub

Tawfik said Pas appeared increasingly willing to shape its electoral strategy based on its own interests rather than through collective PN decisions.

He said this could split the opposition to Pakatan Harapan among several centres of power — Umno, Pas, Bersatu and Wawasan — without a common logo, leadership or menteri besar candidate.

"The nomination process will determine whether this is merely a difference in branding or whether it has developed into a genuine political split."

Tawfik said the risk of a split Malay vote would be high if Bersatu, Pas and Umno fielded candidates against one another or campaigned on conflicting messages.

"If Pas and Umno avoid contesting against each other and Pas supporters are prepared to transfer their votes to Umno candidates, the cooperation could strengthen BN in Malay-majority seats.

"However, if Bersatu contests under its own logo, the Malay vote could still be divided between Umno-Pas supporters and Bersatu supporters."

International Islamic University Malaysia political scientist Associate Professor Dr Syaza Shukri said PN in its current form was no longer viable. "This would affect the strength of the opposition in Negri Sembilan," she added.

Associate Professor Dr Syaza Shukri

However, Syaza said a weaker PN would not necessarily hurt the wider opposition if Pas were to reach an electoral understanding with Umno.

She said Bersatu appeared to have limited electoral influence based on recent trends, while the bigger threat to the opposition would be a Pas-Umno clash that split the Malay vote, benefiting PH.

Syaza said a Pas-Umno arrangement was unlikely to confuse Malay voters as both parties had promoted the same "Malay-Muslim unity" narrative.

However, she said sustaining it after the polls could prove more difficult, particularly if Wawasan were to also be involved.

"As an electoral strategy, I think it is fine. However, if they come to power together, I think it would be difficult for Pas and Umno to continue working together, especially with Wawasan involved."

Polling for Negri Sembilan is scheduled for Aug 1, with nomination day tomorrow.

In the 2023 polls, PH won 17 of the 36 seats, with BN securing 14 and PN the remaining five.

Of PH's seats, DAP won 11, PKR five and Amanah one. - NST