N Sembilan polls: How BN will share the glory of capturing Harapan seats with PN

 

The renewed alliance between BN and PAS-led Perikatan Nasional in Negeri Sembilan won’t just enable them to capture the state, but also share in the glory of taking seats away from Pakatan Harapan - if PN sticks to the 11 seats assigned to it.

While BN aims to scalp Harapan’s two generals - caretaker menteri besar Aminuddin Harun and DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke - it won’t be hogging for itself all the potential seats that can be flipped.

An analysis of voting patterns during the 15th general election showed that of the five Harapan seats where the combined votes from BN and PN had the majority, three would be contested by PN - Sikamat, Klawang, and Ampangan.

Sikamat - Aminuddin’s former seat - and Ampangan are defended by PKR while Amanah holds the fort in Klawang.

The other two seats that can be flipped, Chennah and Pilah, will be defended by Loke and PKR against BN candidates.

In addition to flipping seats, the BN-PN partnership will likely solidify PN’s chances at retaining four seats: Serting, Paroi, Bagan Pinang, and Gemas.

The remaining PN seat, Labu, held by Bersatu, will be contested by BN.

Potential spoiler

Bersatu - which is being pushed out of PN - may dampen the coalition’s chances in these seats if it acts as a spoiler and contests against splinter party Parti Wawasan Negara and PAS.

In Johor, while PN did not have seat clashes, there were clear signs that PAS and Bersatu supporters did not vote for each other, casting their ballots for BN instead.

In a situation where Bersatu acts as a spoiler in a seat without BN, it’s unclear whether the Malay unity agenda fuelling the BN-PN alliance will negate the impact of a third contender.

High-risk areas

But it’s not just victories that BN and PN will be sharing, as possible defeats loom in key Harapan seats as well.

Four of the seats allocated to PN - Lobak, Bukit Kepayang, Mambau, and Lukut - are Harapan strongholds.

Another eight impenetrable Harapan fortresses are being contested by BN, namely Seremban Jaya, Chuah, Rahang, Bahau, Temiang, Sri Tanjung, Repah, and Nilai.

Harapan secured well above 50 percent of the votes in these 12 seats, and it would take a major drop in turnout among their supporters for BN-PN to even stand a remote chance of winning here. - Mkini