How much will Rafizi, Nik Nazmi hurt Anwar if they quit PKR?

 

PKR dissidents Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad are making a big announcement this afternoon on their next political move.

It would not fall short of revealing a new vehicle at least, but may go as far as announcing their resignation from the party, possibly triggering a stream of others following suit.

This would weaken Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s hand, as a loss of, say, 10 MPs would reduce PKR’s seats to 21, Pakatan Harapan's to 71, and the Madani government’s majority, including the six ex-Bersatu independents, to 143, five seats short of the two-thirds majority.

Anwar would need a deal with the Perikatan Nasional opposition to seek support for the two constitutional amendments – on the prime minister’s 10-year tenure limit, and the attorney-general-public prosecutor separation to get through.

But it would not cause a collapse of Anwar’s government. It would just severely weaken his hand in negotiating with BN, Gabungan Parti Sarawak and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah.

PM Anwar Ibrahim

The biggest damage would be a new party to openly challenge PKR, and possibly DAP and Amanah, for the discontented minority and liberal votes.

Anti-hopping law trap

But what differences does it make for Rafizi and Nik Nazmi to quit PKR now instead of after the dissolution of Parliament?

If this had happened before Oct 5, 2022, Rafizi and Nik Nazmi could simply announce a new party in Dewan Rakyat, as Muhyiddin Yassin and Shafie Apdal did in launching Bersatu and Warisan. The quitters stay on as incumbents in the upcoming election.

The anti-hopping law changes (Article 49A of the Federal Constitution), but with a catch. Any sitting MP who quits their party or ceases to be a party member would lose their seat. But MPs sacked by their parties would be free to join other parties or form a new one.

The Bersatu dissidents in the Dewan Rakyat and state legislatures, led by former Bersatu deputy president Hamzah Zainudin, are now free men because of the sacking.

The exemption of expulsion as a ground of seat vacancy is to protect lawmakers from being purged by their party leaders, as Muhyiddin did to his rivals. This is perhaps why Anwar did not want to sack Rafizi and gang.

Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin

“Ceasing to be a party member” is the catch that allows parties to tighten their grip on lawmakers by way of party constitution. It is up to parties to decide what behaviour should cause all or certain members, such as lawmakers, to “cease to be members”.

However, as Article 49A gives the power to the respective speaker to ascertain the vacation of seats, this can and has resulted in different interpretations on how party constitutions matter.

Meanwhile, if a seat vacancy happens after Parliament completes its third year, there would be no by-election under Article 54(1).

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PKR reps free to be rebellious

DAP, Amanah and Umno had their party constitution amended to cause disobedience of party instructions in allegiance or legislative voting, a ground for lawmakers to lose their membership, and then, under Article 49A (and similar provisions in the state constitution) to lose their legislative seats.

Bersatu tried the same, but only after the seven turncoats, of which one was a Selangor state assemblyperson, switched their allegiance to Anwar and Selangor Menteri Besar Amirudin Shari while remaining Bersatu members.

It got the Nenggiri by-election in Kelantan because the Kelantan speaker from PAS agreed with Bersatu’s new constitutional provision.

There was no Selangor by-election because the state assembly speaker from DAP did not reject Bersatu’s new rule, but rejected it on the grounds that this was retrospective and hence a “planned dismissal”.

Most interestingly, the Dewan Rakyat speaker from PKR simply rejected the constraining power of the party constitution.

To my knowledge, PKR has no such provision to cause lawmakers to lose their seats as long as they do not voluntarily quit the party.

Rafizi’s options

Because of Articles 49A and 54(1), if Rafizi and gang all quit now, it makes things simpler for Anwar. They would all lose their seats without an election.

The less prominent rebels would have to stay relevant while PKR appoints prospective candidates to serve their constituencies.

For now, if the 16th general election is to be called after the October budget session, the quitters would only be absent for two parliamentary sessions, July and October.

However, if Anwar sees Rafizi’s group as the main threat, and the economic crisis makes it risky to call for an early election, Anwar can theoretically serve his full term for GE16 in February 2028 at the latest.

While this is an unlikely scenario, if this happens, many of the PKR parliamentarians may find themselves losing relevance as non-MPs.

The unintended consequence of how the Dewan Rakyat speaker handled the Bersatu 6’s defection is that PKR may not be able to do anything about Rafizi and gang, even if they stay back in the party but openly appear on the new party’s platform.

In other words, Rafizi and Nik Nazmi need not helm the new party for it to take off. They can get a senior leader to run it for them without sacrificing their incumbency in any constituency.

It could be Anwar’s worst nightmare if Rafizi’s faction effectively leads the new party – like the Bersatu 6 serves Anwar – without losing their seats. - Mkini

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WONG CHIN HUAT is a political scientist at Sunway University and a member of Project Stability and Accountability for Malaysia (Projek Sama).

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT.