The Chinese-based party will need to choose between winning elections and losing core supporters.
Lau Zhe Wei of International Islamic University Malaysia said MCA stands to benefit from a BN–PAS alliance, as it enables a transfer of PAS votes to MCA candidates.
At the recently concluded Johor state election, MCA doubled its seat tally to eight, helped by votes from PAS supporters.
This came after PAS urged its supporters to back BN in constituencies Perikatan Nasional was not contesting.
“It was a very convenient way for MCA to increase votes and win seats,” Lau said, adding however that a BN-PAS alliance may discourage MCA supporters from casting their ballots.
That means MCA has a choice to make, said Lau.
“Do you try to go after the Chinese votes that you can barely obtain, knowing that even if you manage to secure some, it may still not be enough to win the seat?
“Or do you opt for BN-PAS cooperation where you might not gain most of the Chinese votes but still win the seat?
“I think at the moment, the second option may be better for MCA.”
On July 12, PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang said the party had agreed in principle to let BN defend the 14 seats it previously held in Negeri Sembilan, while PAS itself would contest the three seats it won in the last election.
Three days later, BN deputy chairman Mohamad Hasan announced that the coalition had reached an understanding with “friends” regarding cooperation at the Aug 1 polls, and would field candidates in 25 of the state’s 36 constituencies.
Their remarks prompted MCA Youth secretary-general Saw Yee Fung to question whether her party’s leadership had endorsed the BN-PAS pact.
However, Lau told FMT that a BN–PAS alliance would not necessarily harm MCA, as younger voters may view BN’s presence as helping to moderate PAS’s image.
Separately, Wong Chin Huat of Sunway University said DAP and its supporters, would likely be concerned about the ramifications of a BN-PAS alliance.
He said Pakatan Harapan’s weakness had incentivised the BN–PAS pact.
He said if PH is strong, there would not be enough seats for BN to take from PH and Umno would have no choice but to take on both PN and PH if it wants to lead the next government.
“If PH collapses in Negeri Sembilan, BN and PN would collaborate further in the 16th general election.”
Wong also said MCA was weaker in Negeri Sembilan than in Johor.
He said that non‑Malays would be unwilling to stake their future on MCA if they perceive the risk of PH being defeated by a BN–PAS alliance. - FMT
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