Tougher for BN, PAS to reach federal pact, say analysts

 Tawfik Yaakub and Mazlan Ali doubt a Barisan Nasional victory in Negeri Sembilan and Melaka will threaten the cohesion of Anwar Ibrahim's government.

In a formal pact, BN, under the chairmanship of Ahmad Zahid Hamidi (left), is contesting 25 seats in the Negeri Sembilan state election while PAS, headed by Abdul Hadi Awang, is vying for the remaining 11. (Bernama pic)

PETALING JAYA:

Cooperation between Barisan Nasional and PAS is easier to achieve for state elections, but both parties will struggle to reach a similar pact at the federal level, say analysts.

Tawfik Yaakub.

Tawfik Yaakub of Universiti Malaya said political calculations for general elections are far more complicated than state polls, as state elections conventionally revolve around the menteri besar candidate, seat allocations, and local issues.

For general elections, he said, there was a need to distribute parliamentary seats, and the question of who would be the candidate for the highly coveted post of prime minister.

Tawfik said Umno would also have to manage its relationship with MCA and MIC over a formal pact with PAS.

While PAS would definitely contribute the numbers required to form the government, forcing a pact with PAS too quickly could trigger discontent within Umno and BN.

Mazlan Ali.

Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia said it was easier for PAS to make way for BN in Johor and Negeri Sembilan, given that the Islamic party holds little influence in both states anyway.

“But what about Kedah, Perlis, Kelantan and Terengganu? Would PAS or even BN be willing to make way for the other?” he said.

He said he could not see a BN-PAS pact materialising in the next general election (GE16).

“Even their current pact (for the Negeri Sembilan polls) looks more like a loose election alliance,” he said.

Umno and PAS did not have an explicit pact in the Johor polls, although PAS urged members and supporters to support BN candidates in seats not contested by Perikatan Nasional.

However, BN and PN have reached a formal pact for the Aug 1 Negeri Sembilan state election with both coalitions agreeing not to clash. BN is contesting 25 seats while the PAS-led PN is vying for the remaining 11.

The alliance has already ruffled some feathers within BN, with MCA Youth secretary-general Saw Yee Fung expressing disappointment, and Umno division leaders reportedly upset about giving up seats to PN.

GPS, GRS key bastions of unity govt

Tawfik doubted that a BN victory in Negeri Sembilan and even Melaka would threaten the cohesion of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s administration, though he said it would boost BN’s bargaining power.

“For now, Gabungan Parti Sarawak and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah are likely to remain the bastions keeping the government intact,” he said, commenting on the possibility of BN withdrawing from the unity government.

In any case, he pointed out that BN, GPS and GRS have all pledged to support the government till the end of its term.

Mazlan said the government currently had the backing of 153 MPs. “If BN and its 30 MPs pull their support, Anwar’s administration would still have 123 MPs.”

A simple majority of 112 seats in the Dewan Rakyat is needed to form the government. - FMT