Umno’s dangerous dance with PAS

 By quietly opening the side door for PAS in Negeri Sembilan, Umno is committing the oldest form of political miscalculation: it is validating the very force designed to replace it.

The on-off Umno-PAS dalliance continues. Neither is ready to share a permanent bed; neither is ready to throw out the bed.

Now, in keeping with the times, they appear to be exploring the idea of being friends with benefits.

What began as a tactical truce in Johor is now being tested in Negeri Sembilan. PAS and Umno have reached what both sides call an “understanding” ahead of the Aug 1 state election—a continuation of the cooperation that helped Barisan Nasional sweep Johor on July 11.

In Johor, PAS instructed its members to back Umno and BN candidates in constituencies where Perikatan Nasional (PN) did not contest. Umno swiftly embraced the kind gesture, oozing with gratitude.

PAS president Hadi Awang explained that the cooperation between PAS and BN in Johor was forged to prevent fragmentation of Muslim political power and to ensure Malay-Muslim stewardship of the state.

The formula is now being extended to Negeri Sembilan. This was made crystal clear when nominations closed on July 18: BN is contesting 25 seats while the PAS-led PN is contesting 11 – none of which overlap.

BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said on July 18 that the “tactical move” was to enable BN to regain control of Negri Sembilan.

He was, again, careful to stress that there was no binding pact, only an “understanding” between both coalitions.

BN was part of the previous state government led by PH, as it had 17 assemblymen to BN’s 14.

Under PN, PAS is contesting five seats, Wawasan four, and Gerakan and the Malaysian Indian People’s Party one each.

For PAS, this is probably the best strategy as it cannot win more than a handful of the 36 seats in Negeri Sembilan. It previously held three.

By stepping aside in certain constituencies and telling its base to support Umno, the party transfers part of its ideological brand to BN candidates. If Umno wins, PAS can claim credit for having “helped” or even “saved” its long‑time rival.

It is a clever arrangement. Umno gains a consolidated Malay vote and avoids a damaging three-cornered fight while PAS and PN secure more influence, support, and also, possibly, a share of power in a state PAS has long coveted.

But the arrangement has its dangers for Umno.

For more than half a century, Umno’s primary pitch to the Malay electorate was remarkably consistent. They were the rational, modern managers of the state—the ones who built the infrastructure and distributed the patronage—while PAS was painted as a collection of theological idealists completely unsuited for governance.

Umno also maintained a highly lucrative monopoly on the affections of the Malay electorate by positioning itself as the only rational defence against the theological eccentricities of PAS. Umno styled itself as the moderate party while PAS was framed as an extremist party which, in 1981, through what has come to be known as Amanat Hadi, labelled Umno supporters as “infidels”.

But now, in Negeri Sembilan, Umno appears to be inviting back the very force it spent half a century containing.

The Umno leadership may see this as a tactical truce. It isn’t. It’s really an existential concession that could haunt the party for years.

For, by quietly opening the side door for PAS in Negeri Sembilan, Umno is committing the oldest form of political miscalculation: it is validating the very force designed to replace it.

I’m surprised that Umno’s leadership does not realise that in today’s world, the forces of religious populism do not seek to share power; they seek to replace the “decadent” old order entirely.

Also, by trying to maintain a double identity—sitting in a reformist Cabinet in Putrajaya while collaborating with the fundamentalists in Seremban—Umno will be leaving a distaste in the mouth.

It remains to be seen if Umno can convince voters that its arch-rival, previously decried as an existential threat, is now an acceptable partner. It remains to be seen if Umno can convince voters that there’s nothing wrong in being with PH at federal level but also having an electoral “understanding” with PAS at state level.

However, it may not go down well with non-Malay voters.

While Malay voters form a majority in rural constituencies, Chinese and Indian voters make up significant numbers in urban seats such as Seremban, Rasah, and Nilai. This means the alignment with PAS may consolidate Malay votes in rural areas but risks alienating non‑Malay voters in urban constituencies.

To non-Malays, the PAS-Umno arrangement will carry the message that in Negeri Sembilan, the “Malay-Muslim” agenda is once again dominant.

It could, therefore, enable PH to make significant inroads in the mixed constituencies — enough to blunt any Malay majority constituency gains.

But whether that materialises or not will depend on the turnout and the tone of the campaign, not on the understanding itself.

A state-level compromise like this may provide a brief, comfortable illusion of Umno dominance. What happens when the temporary truce expires? What happens in the next General Election?

At the federal level, the prize is no longer state governments — it is Putrajaya. With roughly 80–85 Malay-majority parliamentary seats in play, the competition becomes a zero-sum game. A seat-sharing deal in Negeri Sembilan does not solve that arithmetic; it merely postpones the reckoning.

When that day comes, the polite smiles will vanish and the daggers will be unsheathed. We will likely witness an absolute, zero-sum dogfight for total power.

Umno may enter the arena fatally compromised by its own cleverness. Having lost its moderate allies in PH and handed legitimacy to its rival, it will be forced to fight on a cultural and religious playing field largely designed by PAS.

Whether this Umno-PAS/PN understanding proves a masterstroke of political management or a costly over-reach will be decided by the voters in Negeri Sembilan and the General Election.

But those like me who have observed politics for decades will tell you that a fatal flaw in political leaders is that they believe they can ride the tiger and dismount at a time of their own choosing.

They never realise, until the final, awkward moment, that the tiger is always hungry, and it does not care for “understandings”. - FMT

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.