They say the appointment of Ahmad Badri Zahir as Felda chairman is unlikely to immediately weaken the party's influence among settlers.
Awang Azman Awang Pawi of Universiti Malaya and Syaza Shukri of International Islamic University of Malaysia said Umno’s ties with Felda were forged through decades of settlement and rural development programmes, making voter loyalty difficult to change overnight.
Awang said Umno’s long-standing image as Felda’s custodian, together with its ability to address the settlers’ concerns such as replanting, land inheritance, and second-generation housing, would matter more than the chairman’s political background.
“If the Umno machinery in Felda settlements remains active, grounded, and responsive, having a non-Umno figure as chairman would not automatically sway voters towards Pakatan Harapan, PAS or Bersatu,” he told FMT.
Syaza said any erosion of Umno’s influence would depend on whether Ahmad Badri Zahir, the new Felda chairman, could improve the authority’s management, adding that any shift in voter support would take time.
“But whatever the case, I do not think any voter shift will happen immediately,” she said.
However, Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri of Global Asia Consulting said Badri’s appointment could weaken the psychological link between Felda and Umno.
“If the Felda leadership is seen as neutral and professional, the monopoly (of Umno over the settlers) is over.
“The settlers may drift towards PH or other alternatives, not out of ideological conviction, but because the old custodial narrative no longer holds water,” he said.
Zaharuddin said the shift away from BN had already become visible in previous elections, particularly when Felda constituencies that were once considered safe seats changed hands.
“Felda youths, increasingly urbanised, are exposed to narratives that challenge BN’s dominance. In GE14, the cracks widened when settlers began voting other than BN in significant numbers. The trend is unlikely to reverse,” he said.
Badri took over as Felda chairman after Umno stalwart Ahmad Shabery Cheek’s contract ended on June 30.
He previously chaired the Employees Provident Fund and has held board positions at Bank Negara Malaysia, Permodalan Nasional Bhd, and Tenaga Nasional Bhd.
He currently chairs RHB Bank Bhd, and the Malaysian Rubber Board.
Former Umno Supreme Council member Puad Zarkashi had said the non-renewal of Ahmad Shabery’s tenure and the appointment of a successor without Umno ties could make it harder for the party to win back Felda-linked seats lost to Perikatan Nasional in the last general election.
Puad said the issue could push Umno and PAS back into seat-sharing talks, given that PAS currently holds several Felda-linked parliamentary seats won under the PN banner in GE15.
Both Zaharuddin and Syaza said the possibility of renewed Umno-PAS talks over Felda seats showed these constituencies were no longer the automatic BN strongholds they once were.
Zaharuddin said seats once regarded as BN’s “fixed deposits” were now volatile enough to influence coalition negotiations.
“If Umno needs PAS merely to hold ground in Felda, then the myth of Umno’s unshakable rural grip is collapsing,” he said.
They agreed that a BN-PN pact would help consolidate Malay votes and reduce vote-splitting in future elections, though Syaza cautioned that it was unclear how well voters would actually transfer support between Umno and Bersatu, as opposed to PAS. - FMT
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