Aminuddin’s polls defeat will weaken PH on national stage, says analyst

 It will reinforce perceptions that PKR is struggling to gain support in Malay-majority, rural and semi-urban constituencies, especially after Pakatan Harapan fared poorly in the Johor state election last month.

Aminuddin Harun’s defeat is seen as a major political setback for PKR but it may not signal the end of his political career.

PETALING JAYA:

Aminuddin Harun’s defeat in the Negeri Sembilan state election is expected to damage Pakatan Harapan on the national stage as it has been considered one of its stronger states, and Aminuddin among PKR’s most prominent state-level leaders.

Political scientist Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya said Aminuddin’s defeat in Linggi would reinforce perceptions that PKR was struggling to gain support in Malay-majority, rural and semi-urban constituencies, especially after the weak performance of PH in the Johor state election.

He said that it would also strengthen Umno’s bargaining position in the PH-led federal unity coalition government.

“Umno can argue it is better positioned than PKR to consolidate Malay support and provide state-level political stability. This could affect negotiations over seats, leadership positions and coalition strategy approaching the next general election,” he said.

Awang Azman Pawi.

On Saturday, Barisan Nasional and its electoral ally, the PAS-led Perikatan Nasional, claimed victory in the Negeri Sembilan state election, securing a two-thirds majority to end PH’s hold on the Negeri Sembilan government after two terms.

PH suffered a major upset with the loss of two bigwigs – DAP secretary-general and state party chief Loke Siew Fook and state PH leader Aminuddin, who had served as menteri besar since 2018. They were defeated in Chennah and Linggi respectively.

Aminuddin lost to BN’s Faizal Ramli, after leaving Sikamat, which he had represented for four consecutive terms, to contest in the Umno stronghold of Linggi.

James Chin.

Political scientist James Chin of University of Tasmania said Umno’s victory in Negeri Sembilan would also give it leverage to call for the Melaka state election to be held, in turn pressuring Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim to call for an early general election.

“If Anwar is willing to call for an early general election, Umno will hold off on calls for the Melaka state election,” he said.

The Melaka state assembly’s term ends in December, unless dissolved earlier, and elections must be held by mid-February at the latest.

Moving forward from defeat

Awang Azman said Aminuddin’s defeat did not necessarily signal the end of his political career.

Aminuddin’s decision to leave the relatively safer seat of Sikamat would be interpreted as a strategic gamble that had failed, as it had been presented as an attempt to expand PH’s reach into BN territory and secure a stronger mandate.

“PKR must now develop a credible second generation of Malay leaders. Without Aminuddin in the assembly, PKR may struggle to remain the principal Malay face of PH in Negeri Sembilan,” he said.

Aminuddin’s defeat should not be taken as proof of a wholesale national rejection of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim or PKR, Azman said. While Aminuddin’s authority in the party had been seriously weakened, he remained as MP for Port Dickson and would continue to have a platform in national politics. - FMT