The scale of PH's defeat also showed that the Anwar Ibrahim brand is no longer enough to switch support to PH candidates automatically, says an analyst.
Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri of Global Asia Consulting said DAP and PH, for years, had been able to count on strong support from Chinese and Indian voters, especially in urban and mixed constituencies. However, the Johor results showed that such an assumption was no longer safe.
“More worrying for PH than any seat won by Barisan Nasional is the message sent by those who chose not to vote at all. Across several mixed constituencies, lower participation among non-Malay voters appears to have hurt PH’s ability to remain competitive,” he told FMT.
Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said non-Malay voters had once again cast protest votes against DAP and PH by voting for BN in Johor, after doing so with Warisan in Sabah last year in the state elections.
“If PH doesn’t quicken its reform pace, say, in the remaining year or so, it’s likely to lose some seats in the next general election,” he warned.
Official results show that PH won only 8 seats, down by four from the 12 it won in 2022. DAP won six seats, while PKR and Amanah each won a seat. Four DAP seats won in 2022 were taken by MCA and MIC, according to results, including DAP’s strongholds of Johor Jaya and Perling.
Abandon Johor takeover dream
Zaharuddin and Oh urged PH to abandon its ambition to take power in Johor, as the results showed that the state would remain BN’s most solid fortress.
Zaharuddin said that PH should have learned its lesson from its loss of Chinese support in Sabah, by focusing on rebuilding its core support base. Instead of doing so, PH doubled down by trying to become the next Johor government despite the solid support for BN.
“Instead of contesting almost every constituency, PH should focus on becoming Johor’s strongest and most credible opposition. Concentrate resources on winnable seats. Build respected local leaders. Hold the government accountable. Earn trust before asking for power,” he added.
Oh says that it is better for PH to focus its resources on winning a sizeable number of seats so that it can become an effective state opposition.
Voters’ rejection of Anwar?
Political scientist Awang Azman Awang Pawi of Universiti Malaya said the Johor results posed a clear warning to Anwar Ibrahim as prime minister and PH chairman. “The scale of PH’s defeat showed that the Anwar brand is no longer enough to switch support to PH candidates automatically,” he told FMT.
However, it was not easy to conclude that the entire electorate had rejected or lost faith in Anwar.
Azman said the PH campaign in Johor relied heavily on national figures, although state elections required more localised messaging on the Johor PH chief, what development model PH could offer Johor, and why PH would be better in office than Onn Hafiz Ghazi’s government.
He said the “paradox of the PH-BN relationship,” has affected Anwar, as he had to preserve his working relationship with BN in Putrajaya while at the same time asking Johor voters to reject BN.
“This message is difficult to explain to ordinary voters and gave BN an advantage to claim that state stability is more important than national-level competition,” he said.
“This election result is not necessarily an absolute referendum on Anwar’s qualification as a prime minister. However, it shows that his personal political capital has diminished and is geographically and institutionally limited. Anwar is still acceptable as the leader of the federal government, but PH in Johor can no longer survive solely on his charisma and reputation,” he added. - FMT
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.