Johor election defeat hastens PN’s downfall, say analysts

 The opposition coalition faces a breakup as the PAS-Bersatu partnership unravels.

Bersatu and PAS, though partners in Perikatan Nasional, campaigned separately at the Johor election.

PETALING JAYA:

The crushing defeat suffered by Perikatan Nasional in the Johor election could accelerate the breakup of the opposition coalition, according to a political analyst.

Reevany Bustami of Universiti Sains Malaysia said PN might not survive in its current form, especially with the relationship between PAS and Bersatu continuing to deteriorate. He said the Johor result could hasten a split that was already under way.

Reevany Bustami.

PN contested 33 seats but failed to win any, with the coalition’s partners defeated in all the seats they contested – Bersatu in 16 contests, PAS 11, MIPP five, and Pejuang one.

PN would now need new leaders, different partners, or a new political direction to remain relevant.

“Past experience shows that breakaway parties and coalitions often struggle to survive beyond two or three elections if they fail to build lasting support,” said Reevany. a lecturer at USM’s Centre for Policy Research and International Studies .

PAS looks beyond Bersatu

PAS decided on June 8 to end its electoral cooperation with Bersatu, although both remained partners in PN. They did not campaign for each other in Johor, with PAS also instructing its members and supporters to vote for BN in areas where PN was not contesting.

“PAS may be trying to show that if it lends its support to another party, that party can win,” Reevany said.

The apparent willingness of PAS to support BN in Johor may have been aimed at strengthening its own position, punishing Bersatu, or preventing the party from expanding its reach.

He said PAS still had a strong and loyal Malay support base, but could not become a national force on its own. It would need a partner capable of attracting non-Malay and non-Muslim voters if it hoped to form the federal government

Support from its core Malay base alone would not be enough to win power in Putrajaya.

Francis Hutchinson.

Another analyst, Francis Hutchinson of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, said the election results appeared to mark the unravelling of the PAS-Bersatu partnership.

Although Johor could not be seen to be representative of the peninsula, he said, the result was still a major setback for the opposition coalition.

Johor was also difficult terrain for PAS because of the role of royalty in religious affairs and the state’s more traditional Islamic outlook.

Hutchinson said PN had previously relied on PAS support in the Mersing area, and on supporters of Bersatu and Muhyiddin Yassin around Pagoh. However, the breakdown in cooperation between PAS and Bersatu had severely weakened PN’s election machinery.

He said PN may also have secured a respectable share of the vote in some constituencies, but finishing third meant it failed to convert that support into seats under the first-past-the-post electoral system.

“The limited number of seats PN contested essentially meant it had no governing project,” he said.

Hutchinson said PAS and Parti Wawasan Negara were likely to form a new political vehicle, but would face logistical challenges in preparing for the Negeri Sembilan election on Aug 1 at such short notice.  - FMT